Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.322194 1.543391 1.789759 2.084474 2.427463 2.814095 3.283136
2024-12-15 0.965874 1.259632 1.624051 2.109267 2.738598 3.527726 4.593466
2024-12-22 0.739551 1.043669 1.450987 2.036249 2.856089 3.964774 5.580519
2024-12-29 0.654437 0.984608 1.455158 2.174347 3.246604 4.788039 7.177195
2025-01-05 0.540324 0.859322 1.339082 2.112661 3.329984 5.175000 8.191276
2025-01-12 0.451039 0.753847 1.231709 2.040000 3.374813 5.495741 9.132161
2025-01-19 0.382679 0.669269 1.141844 1.976884 3.417916 5.808358 10.088706
2025-01-26 0.344876 0.628955 1.116768 2.014204 3.627087 6.410954 11.599358
2025-02-02 0.327923 0.621854 1.146020 2.147270 4.016093 7.363172 13.838158
2025-02-09 0.303255 0.596700 1.139013 2.212377 4.288651 8.139298 15.855203
2025-02-16 0.277223 0.564954 1.115045 2.241163 4.494627 8.814589 17.764873
2025-02-23 0.251264 0.529473 1.078833 2.240214 4.640584 9.389611 19.546894
2025-03-02 0.226933 0.494655 1.040860 2.233727 4.781002 9.983764 21.474806
2025-03-09 0.207904 0.468423 1.017182 2.254332 4.981838 10.728775 23.826432
2025-03-16 0.182745 0.425138 0.951739 2.176020 4.959760 11.004297 25.204673
2025-03-23 0.178491 0.428102 0.986575 2.323535 5.454103 12.449060 29.363609
2025-03-30 0.158939 0.392761 0.931188 2.257635 5.454129 12.799073 31.068532
2025-04-06 0.141018 0.358723 0.874229 2.180011 5.415617 13.054848 32.583532
2025-04-13 0.125879 0.329346 0.824376 2.112584 5.392110 13.341417 34.209412
2025-04-20 0.118483 0.318525 0.818110 2.152453 5.639142 14.307624 37.653333
2025-04-27 0.117001 0.322898 0.850252 2.294608 6.164947 16.025604 43.246007
2025-05-04 0.111832 0.316673 0.854466 2.364161 6.510600 17.331018 47.932396
2025-05-11 0.105266 0.305677 0.844735 2.394912 6.756495 18.408320 52.149974